Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Monday his willingness to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the United States for one additional year beyond its current expiration date of February 5, 2026. This proposal is conditional on reciprocal commitment from the U.S. government to maintain existing nuclear arms limits for the same period. Putin's gesture reflects a desire to prevent a dangerous escalation in the nuclear arms race between the world's two largest nuclear powers, even as broader geopolitical tensions remain high. The extension would provide a window of stability while allowing both sides to potentially negotiate a successor agreement to the treaty.
Speaking at a Security Council meeting held at the Kremlin, Putin underscored the critical importance of the New START treaty to global strategic stability. He warned that allowing the treaty to lapse would have "negative consequences for global stability," emphasizing that Moscow's compliance with the pact's numerical limits would depend on the U.S. upholding similar commitments and refraining from actions that could disrupt the delicate balance of nuclear deterrence. Putin said Russia would continue adhering to the central quantitative limits set by the treaty for an additional year past its expiration but reserved the right to reassess and decide its future course based on developments during this period.
The New START treaty, initially signed in 2010 by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, remains the cornerstone of nuclear arms control between the two nations. It restricts each side to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers. The treaty also mandated comprehensive onsite inspections to verify compliance, although such inspections have been suspended since 2020 amid worsening diplomatic ties.
Putin’s latest proposal arrives against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Russia and NATO countries, exacerbated by recent incidents such as Russian military aircraft violating the airspace of Estonia and Poland. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia maintains approximately 4,309 nuclear warheads, while the United States has about 3,700, collectively accounting for more than 80% of the total global nuclear arsenal. The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia's total nuclear stockpile at nearly 5,460 warheads, with around 1,718 actively deployed.
Despite Russia suspending its formal participation in the treaty in February 2023—halting inspections and data exchanges—Moscow has since maintained that it will continue observing the prescribed limits on its nuclear arsenal. The suspension was justified by the Kremlin as a response to what it perceives as the U.S. and NATO openly seeking Russia's defeat in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, making inspections of nuclear facilities an unacceptable risk.
The expiration of the New START treaty represents a potential tipping point in global arms control efforts. SIPRI has warned that the world is entering a "dangerous new nuclear arms race," with the erosion of key arms control agreements raising fears of unchecked nuclear expansion. With the treaty set to expire in early 2026, Russia and the United States stand poised either to allow limits on strategic nuclear arms to lapse or to negotiate a new framework to contain their arsenals.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced interest in nuclear arms control, indicating in July his desire to maintain nuclear restrictions and work toward an extension of the treaty. Trump has also expressed a willingness to involve China in future arms control negotiations, citing its significant but smaller nuclear arsenal. However, China has thus far rejected participation in trilateral talks involving the U.S. and Russia.
Should negotiations falter, both nations could surpass treaty-imposed limits for the first time in over three decades, stoking fears of an arms race that could destabilize the already fragile global nuclear order. Beyond Moscow and Washington, other countries might accelerate their own nuclear weapons programs in response, further complicating international security.
Putin’s overture for a one-year extension is framed as a pragmatic step toward preserving strategic stability amid uncertainty. It signals Moscow’s readiness to maintain "voluntary self-imposed restrictions" for the near term, conditioned on reciprocal measures from the U.S. This stance aligns with broader revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which emphasizes readiness to respond to new threats not merely with rhetoric but with force if necessary.
The New START treaty stands as the last remaining formal arms control pact between Russia and the United States following the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 under the Trump administration. The absence of a comprehensive arms control regime leaves a critical gap in the framework designed to limit the scope and scale of nuclear weapons worldwide.
In previous years, the treaty’s extension process was complicated by differing priorities and demands. Russia sought to ensure the treaty’s core numerical thresholds would be respected without expanding verification measures or including tactical nuclear weapons in the agreement. Conversely, the U.S. sought tougher verification regimes and advocated for broader inclusion of emerging nuclear powers.
The symbolic and practical value of New START's extension lies in its role as a stabilizing force amid heightened geopolitical rivalry. Continued dialogue facilitated by the treaty helps mitigate the risk of misunderstandings or miscalculations that could lead to conflict escalation. Putin’s offer thus represents an opportunity to maintain a degree of predictability and restraint in an otherwise fraught strategic environment.
However, the proposal also reflects the broader challenges inherent in arms control diplomacy today. Increased mistrust, regional conflicts such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the rapid modernization of nuclear arsenals contribute to an environment where agreements are difficult to negotiate and sustain. The coming year will likely be pivotal in determining whether Russia and the United States can reinvigorate their arms control dialogue or whether the nuclear arms race will accelerate unchecked.
In conclusion, Putin’s readiness to extend the New START treaty for an additional year signals a cautious but pragmatic approach to maintaining nuclear stability in an era of heightened global tensions. It underlines the continuing importance of arms control frameworks to prevent escalation between the two nuclear giants and offers a potential pathway to renewing negotiations for a more comprehensive and enduring agreement in the future. The international community will be closely watching Washington’s response and the prospects for renewed diplomacy as the February 2026 expiration date approaches.
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